By Uzma Ehtasham
The launch of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has stirred excitement across Pakistan, marking a new chapter in an ambitious partnership that, since its inception, has promised to transform the country’s economic landscape. This phase, unlike the infrastructure-heavy focus of the initial CPEC projects, pivots toward agriculture, industrial modernization, and digital transformation—sectors critical to Pakistan’s productivity and export potential. The fanfare around this shift, however, should be tempered with reflection on the broader implications for Pakistan’s sovereignty, long-term economic sustainability, and the delicate balance of power in its relationship with China.
At the forefront of this second phase is a headline-grabbing $400 million agricultural agreement between Pakistan’s International Innovation Park Limited and China National Cereals, Oils, and Foodstuffs Corporation. With assurances of duty-free access to international markets for Pakistani products, the deal promises a significant boost for Pakistan’s beleaguered agricultural sector. But while this partnership paints a rosy picture of exports rising and Pakistan’s farmers gaining market access, it also raises questions about the longer-term dynamics of dependency. By strengthening ties in agriculture, Pakistan risks deeper entanglement with China, not just in trade but in food production itself, which could render the country vulnerable to geopolitical shifts that are often unpredictable.
This reliance on a single dominant partner in agriculture is particularly concerning given Pakistan’s susceptibility to climate change. Extreme weather events, from floods to prolonged droughts, have already battered the agricultural sector, compromising yields and disrupting livelihoods. While this new CPEC phase brings the allure of economic revitalization, is doubling down on agriculture prudent for a country facing such climate volatility? Many argue that the focus on agriculture may be a quick fix for economic concerns but lacks the foresight necessary to address the environmental challenges that loom over the sector.
The digital transformation of Pakistan’s textile industry, long the cornerstone of its exports, is another focal point of this phase. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed to revitalize 200 textile factories, a move that aims to make the industry more competitive globally through digital and supply chain optimization. In theory, this modernization could re-establish Pakistan as a competitive textile player, but without clear regulatory protections, data sovereignty safeguards, and a locally cultivated skill base, the digital transformation may also risk over-dependence on foreign expertise and infrastructure. It raises the question of whether such partnerships strengthen Pakistan’s industry or place it at risk of new dependencies.
For Pakistan, the stakes in this second phase of CPEC are substantial. Since its inception, CPEC has been celebrated as a lifeline for a struggling economy. Pakistan is in dire need of the infrastructure, job creation, and investment opportunities that the initiative brings, and the government has emphasized these potential benefits in the wake of ballooning fiscal deficits and strained public resources. However, the country’s accumulated debt to China has grown substantially, and critics warn that CPEC projects, which often carry high-interest loans, could place Pakistan in a precarious financial position. Far from achieving economic independence, Pakistan risks becoming entangled in what some observers call “debt-trap diplomacy,” wherein nations find themselves economically bound and politically influenced by their creditor states.
These concerns about CPEC’s second phase reflect broader anxieties regarding Pakistan’s economic sovereignty. Is Pakistan navigating a genuine partnership with China, or is it on the path to becoming a de facto client state? Much like other countries involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Pakistan faces the challenge of maintaining agency and ensuring that its economic trajectory is not subordinated to external interests. True economic growth requires more than just investment; it demands that Pakistan retain control over its resources, policies, and strategic direction.
The path ahead is fraught with challenges. As Pakistan embraces the transformative promises of CPEC, it must exercise prudence to avoid inadvertently mortgaging its future. While immediate economic benefits may be attractive, the government must keep a vigilant eye on the terms and conditions underlying each agreement, safeguarding against potential encroachments on sovereignty and ensuring that economic development aligns with national interests. The country must strike a balance between leveraging Chinese support and nurturing a framework for self-sustained growth. Only by retaining ownership over its developmental agenda can Pakistan ensure that its partnership with China remains mutually beneficial rather than a lopsided affair.
As Pakistan navigates the delicate terrain of this new CPEC phase, it must prioritize long-term stability over short-term gains. The country’s leaders must recognize that while Chinese investment provides critical support, the ultimate measure of CPEC’s success will be Pakistan’s ability to stand independently, drawing strength from international partnerships without becoming beholden to them. In doing so, Pakistan can chart a path toward economic resilience, where progress is not merely imported but cultivated, ensuring a future that truly serves the interests of its people.
(The writer is a public health professional and possesses expertise in health communication, having keen interest in national and international affairs, can be reached at uzma@metro-morning.com)
