By S.M. Inam
As the United States approaches a consequential presidential election, the global stage watches with keen anticipation—and nowhere is this interest as layered with hopes and expectations as it is in Pakistan. The Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, is vying to become the first woman to lead the country, while former President Donald Trump, the Republican contender, seeks to reclaim his place in the White House. Each candidate’s potential victory brings implications for US-Pakistan relations, yet whether these implications will lead to significant shifts remains a subject of debate among political analysts. In Pakistan, a particular subset of the population, notably supporters of the former ruling party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), pins its hopes on a Trump victory. They view Trump’s return as a potential catalyst for PTI leader Imran Khan’s release from jail and envision a more supportive stance toward PTI’s political re-emergence.
However, these hopes are largely speculative, driven more by political aspirations than grounded in a realistic understanding of US foreign policy. History has shown that US policy toward Pakistan is not swayed by individual leaders but by broader, strategic interests that rarely change with a new president. For decades, Pakistan has often been viewed by Washington primarily through the lens of regional security concerns rather than as a standalone ally or partner. Post-9/11, Pakistan was a “frontline ally” in the fight against terrorism under George W. Bush, but this alliance came with the recurrent pressure to “do more.” President Obama’s tenure followed a similar trajectory, with fluctuating dynamics but an underlying continuity that underscored US interests in regional stability. During Trump’s administration, there was an initial warmth, particularly during the 2019 meeting with Imran Khan, where he welcomed Khan to the White House.
While this symbolic gesture was well-received in Pakistan, substantive policy shifts did not materialize, as Trump’s administration continued to emphasize the importance of “doing more” on counterterrorism. As President Biden assumed office, the tone sharpened once more, with the US placing more emphasis on India as a strategic partner and relegating Pakistan to a more peripheral position. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 brought US-Pakistan relations to another turning point, with Washington more focused on managing its interests vis-à -vis India and countering Chinese influence in the region. In the Biden administration, the strategic interest in Pakistan remains, though often defined by concerns over regional security and stability rather than bilateral partnership.
Thus, as this year’s election draws near, the question for Pakistan should not be whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will offer a radically new approach. Both candidates are likely to adhere to a strategic framework that prioritizes American interests, albeit with variations in diplomatic tone and emphasis. If elected, Kamala Harris would likely continue to advocate for human rights and democracy, yet these ideals would likely remain secondary to security interests. Conversely, while Trump’s rhetoric might seem more flexible, his administration’s policies toward Pakistan did not depart significantly from established norms; he too prioritized American security interests over alliances.
Pakistan’s observers must temper their expectations with realism. A new administration may bring symbolic gestures or a shift in diplomatic language, but the foundational priorities governing the US approach toward Pakistan are unlikely to change overnight. Pakistan must focus on its own diplomatic stance, fostering a relationship based on mutual respect and realistic appraisals rather than transient hopes pinned to changing administrations. Overestimating the impact of US elections risks leading Pakistan’s foreign policy astray; a clear-eyed focus on Pakistan’s own national interests would serve as a more sustainable path forward. This election, therefore, serves as a reminder that while administrations may change, the underlying motives in US foreign policy—particularly toward Pakistan—are deeply rooted in strategic interests. For Pakistan, navigating this dynamic requires pragmatism, not idealism, as well as a commitment to building ties that reflect genuine mutual interests rather than waiting for shifting winds in Washington.
