Trump’s victory and Pakistan’s fate
By S.M. Inam
Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a transformative period not only for the United States but also for countries like Pakistan, where American foreign policy significantly impacts both domestic politics and international relations. Trump’s 2024 victory, with 277 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226, marks a continuation of deeply polarized U.S. politics, with his decisive wins in battleground states like Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania highlighting a sharply divided electorate. For Pakistan, the implications of Trump’s win extend beyond diplomacy to touch on political stability, economic maneuvering, and strategic alliances in the region. Historically, Pakistan’s leadership has navigated a delicate balance in its relationship with the United States. Leaders perceived as veering too far from U.S. expectations often faced severe repercussions, as seen in the case of former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. His independent stance in the 1970s on nuclear policy and economic autonomy attracted U.S. displeasure, and he eventually faced intense political pressure that culminated in his ouster and subsequent execution. Similarly, Imran Khan’s tenure as prime minister was marked by a refusal to adhere strictly to U.S. foreign policy lines, especially on matters relating to Afghanistan and China. These instances underscore the stakes for Pakistan when navigating its alignment with American interests, especially under a leader as unpredictable as Trump.
The Trump-Imran Khan dynamic is noteworthy, with both figures sharing a populist appeal and a perceived anti-establishment stance. Their rapport could, in theory, provide Pakistan with certain diplomatic advantages, such as direct communication and potentially favorable bilateral discussions. However, Trump’s policy tendencies—such as an “America First” approach, skepticism toward alliances, and a transactional view of partnerships—introduce an element of unpredictability that Pakistan must approach with caution. While Trump may initially approach Pakistan favorably, particularly in contrast to the more complex U.S.-India relationship, he is equally likely to demand stringent cooperation on counterterrorism or regional stability issues. This could include pressures on Pakistan to distance itself from China, a core ally and economic partner. The political implications for Pakistan extend beyond U.S.-Pakistan relations to regional dynamics, particularly with India. Trump’s prior administration showed a marked preference for deepening ties with India as a counterweight to China in South Asia. Should this trend continue, Pakistan may find itself under pressure to make diplomatic concessions, whether on Kashmir, economic policies, or defense cooperation. With the emerging U.S.-India alignment, Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy will require finesse to avoid a scenario where it becomes overly isolated or pressured into unfavorable positions.
In the streets of Washington, the atmosphere following Trump’s win reflects the polarization gripping the United States, with celebratory gatherings and intense security measures signaling both joy and concern. Eight-foot barriers surrounding the White House and heightened police presence speak to the divisive nature of Trump’s presidency, a reality that reverberates internationally. The depth of this divide raises questions about America’s global leadership and the stability of its domestic policies—factors that will inevitably influence its approach to foreign partnerships. For Pakistan, the return of Trump presents both risks and opportunities. The country’s leadership will need to exercise strategic foresight, balancing its relationships with the U.S., China, and other key players while safeguarding national interests. Economic cooperation, trade partnerships, and defense agreements must be approached with long-term strategy, anticipating shifts in U.S. policy that could impact Pakistan’s economic and security frameworks. Maintaining diplomatic agility, especially in relation to regional conflicts and counterterrorism efforts, will be essential in this new era.
As Pakistan stands at this critical juncture, Trump’s presidency may prompt Islamabad to reassess its foreign policy objectives. Aligning closely with the U.S. could offer economic incentives, but may come with demands that challenge Pakistan’s sovereignty or its longstanding alliances, particularly with China. Conversely, distancing from U.S. expectations risks isolation in an increasingly polarized world order. Navigating these complex waters will require Pakistan to strengthen its internal political resilience, develop diversified alliances, and pursue a proactive foreign policy that ensures its security and economic prosperity amid shifting global dynamics. In this new chapter of U.S.-Pakistan relations, strategic clarity and adaptability will be key. Pakistan’s choices in the coming years will not only define its immediate diplomatic stance but will also shape its broader geopolitical role. As the world watches America’s pivot under Trump, Pakistan’s leadership must work diligently to secure a path that respects its sovereignty, promotes stability, and fosters mutually beneficial international partnerships.
(The writer is a senior analyst on national international affairs, can be reached at inam@metro-morning.com)
