By Uzma Ehtasham
Armenia has halted its planned acquisition of India’s Tejas fighter jets following a dramatic crash at the Dubai Airshow that claimed the life of the aircraft’s pilot, casting a shadow over the indigenous fighter program and its fledgling export ambitions. Negotiations for the $1.2 billion deal, which would have involved the purchase of twelve jets, were underway and marked what would have been the first major international sale of the Tejas aircraft. The suspension of the deal is expected to have significant financial consequences for Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which had supplied critical systems for the jet, including advanced radar and avionics equipment. Industry analysts warn that such setbacks can ripple through defence supply chains, affecting not only domestic manufacturers but also international collaborators.
The incident, which occurred on 21 November during the Dubai Airshow, has raised questions over the risks associated with high-profile demonstrations of military aircraft. The crash not only led to the tragic death of the pilot but also triggered intense scrutiny of the Tejas program’s safety and operational record. Though the aircraft has been steadily integrated into the Indian Air Force, observers suggest that accidents during international exhibitions carry disproportionate weight in shaping potential buyers’ perceptions. Defence experts note that the suspension underscores the fragility of emerging defence exports, where reputational considerations often outweigh technical specifications. “A single high-visibility accident can derail years of negotiations and set back international ambitions for smaller aerospace programs,” one analyst said.
For India, which has invested heavily in the development of the Tejas jet as a symbol of its indigenous defence capabilities, the setback is a sobering reminder of the challenges involved in breaking into competitive global markets dominated by long-established players. While the long-term future of the deal remains uncertain, Armenia’s decision is already seen as a significant blow to the Tejas program’s export credentials. The aircraft’s manufacturers and their partners, including Israeli technology providers, now face the difficult task of reassuring potential buyers about safety, reliability, and operational readiness, all while managing the political and commercial fallout from the Dubai Airshow tragedy. The incident has also reignited debate within defence circles over the risks inherent in live-flight demonstrations, particularly for aircraft that are still relatively new to operational service.
Observers point out that while airshows are invaluable for showcasing capabilities and attracting international interest, they also expose manufacturers to acute reputational risks if accidents occur. In this context, the Armenian suspension illustrates how a single event can influence high-value defence deals, which often hinge as much on perception as on performance metrics. The Tejas program, developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, represents a key component of India’s strategy to achieve greater self-reliance in defence production. It has been in service with the Indian Air Force for several years, gradually replacing older aircraft in its fleet. International interest, exemplified by the Armenian negotiations, was seen as a crucial step toward demonstrating the aircraft’s viability on the global stage. The sudden halt, however, signals the fragility of such ambitions and the high stakes involved in exporting military hardware.
Beyond financial implications, the crash and the resulting deal suspension also highlight broader challenges for India’s defence diplomacy. Success in this arena requires not only technological prowess but also robust track records of safety, reliability, and operational support—factors that are closely monitored by prospective international customers. Analysts say that rebuilding confidence in the Tejas program will demand careful management, transparent investigation into the Dubai incident, and effective communication with both domestic and international stakeholders. In the immediate term, the suspension leaves Israel Aerospace Industries facing a notable economic impact, as the loss of the Armenian contract represents potential revenue shortfalls and disruption to production schedules. The company had provided a range of advanced avionics and radar systems for the Tejas jets, and any delay or cancellation affects both financial planning and ongoing research and development commitments.
For Armenia, the decision reflects caution and a focus on risk mitigation. Defence procurement, particularly of high-value fighter jets, involves not only technical evaluation but also consideration of safety records, operational readiness, and international confidence in the platform. In this instance, the tragic circumstances of the Dubai Airshow crash appear to have tipped the balance, prompting officials to suspend the deal until further assessments can be made. As India’s indigenous fighter program seeks to navigate these setbacks, the episode serves as a reminder of the intricate balance between ambition and risk in the global defence market. High-profile accidents, while rare, carry far-reaching consequences, shaping the perceptions of governments and military planners around the world.
For the Tejas program, the challenge now lies in restoring faith in its capabilities and demonstrating that the aircraft can perform safely under operational conditions, both at home and abroad. The suspension of the Armenian deal is a stark illustration of how quickly fortunes can change in the defence sector, particularly for emerging exporters. It underscores the delicate interplay between technical achievement, operational safety, and international confidence—a triad that can determine the success or stagnation of even the most promising military projects. In the wake of the Dubai Airshow tragedy, India and its partners face a critical moment, one that will test both their resilience and their ability to manage perception in a market where reputation often proves as decisive as capability.
(The writer is a public health professional, journalist, and possesses expertise in health communication, having keen interest in national and international affairs, can be reached at uzma@metro-morning.com)
