At a recent press interaction in Bedminster, US President Donald Trump revealed that a Pakistani trade delegation is set to visit the United States next week to negotiate a new trade agreement. The talks will also cover the broader regional security situation, reflecting Washington’s continued interest in stabilizing South Asia through economic engagement. Notably, Trump reiterated for the ninth time that the proposed trade deal aims to prevent any outbreak of war between Pakistan and India. At face value, such diplomatic overtures should be welcomed. After all, dialogue is always better than silence, and cooperation better than confrontation. For a region haunted by historical animosity and nuclear brinkmanship, any step away from tension deserves acknowledgement.
But beneath the surface of this high-level diplomacy lies a far more intricate web of strategic calculations, shifting allegiances, and geopolitical theatre. Pakistan, for its part, stands at a defining crossroads. With China and Russia now engaging with greater vigor than at any point in recent memory, the nation is no longer the Cold War participant it once was. Moscow’s renewed interest in Pakistan Steel Mills, an industrial giant long dormant, is more than an economic gesture. It is a symbolic move, signaling that Russia, nudged by Chinese encouragement, sees Pakistan as a partner worth courting once more. For Pakistan, this demands a degree of caution. Accepting a trade deal from the US, however well-intentioned, should not come at the cost of sacrificing long-term strategic partnerships that are beginning to bear fruit.
The global chessboard has shifted. In this new game, India—once seen as Washington’s rising regional favorite—finds itself increasingly isolated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, once a darling of Western capitals, now rarely steps beyond India’s borders. The reason, according to murmurs both within and beyond Delhi, is a fear of diplomatic cold shoulders. Even the once-cordial smiles in Brussels or the expected embraces in Washington are replaced by wary glances and stiff handshakes. There is a growing recognition that India’s diplomatic posture—particularly its efforts to sideline and contain Pakistan—has backfired. Under Trump’s watchful gaze, the United States appears to be gently nudging Modi toward acknowledgment, if not humility.
There’s an unmistakable suggestion that the White House wants India to admit what many have long suspected—that the push to isolate Pakistan was ill-conceived and counterproductive. The irony is thick. The very strategy designed to project India as South Asia’s unquestioned leader has instead cast it adrift, as global power centers recalibrate their allegiances. China’s embrace of Pakistan, meanwhile, is no longer just economic. It is strategic, vocal, and increasingly influential. Beijing has not only pumped billions into infrastructure and energy projects across Pakistan, but has also made it clear that Islamabad is a key ally in its broader vision of regional dominance. As Chinese investments stretch across Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, their grip on South Asian affairs grows firmer.
Indian politician, like the ever-astute Shashi Tharoor, who is part of diplomatic chorus after the false flag Pahalgam operation, undoubtedly carried out by India’s political establishment to go before the Bihar elections, have begun admitting this uncomfortable truth that in Columbia, their diplomacy out rightly rejected by the host and rather offering condolences to false flag Pahalgam victims, the authorities in Columbia sympathized Pakistani victims who were unfortunately targeted by India’s aggression. Others, such as parliamentarian Asaduddin Owaisi, have gone further, publicly expressing frustration over the humiliations faced by Indian diplomats abroad that responsible to convey the Indian government strategy regarding the false flag terror attack on Pahalgam. These are not outbursts in isolation. They reflect a deeper sense of unease within India’s political establishment—one that Pakistan should observe carefully and respond to diplomatically.
Russia, too, has made its recalculations. Despite India’s acquisition of the powerful Russian S-400 air defence system, Moscow remained conspicuously silent during recent regional skirmishes. It was a silence that spoke volumes. Once the Soviet Union had stood staunchly with India during the 1971 war between Pakistan and India, but the global order has since evolved. India’s series of military and intelligence-sharing agreements with the United States, especially in 2016, 2018, and 2020—aimed explicitly at countering China—have diluted New Delhi’s non-aligned credentials. Russia and Iran, traditionally close to India, now look eastward toward Beijing, and by extension, toward Pakistan.
As if the situation were not complex enough, India’s decision to allow US forces access to its airbases under NATO frameworks adds another layer of unease. It is a move that risks dragging South Asia deeper into the spiraling rivalries between the US, China, Russia, and Iran. It also places Pakistan at the center of a precarious and unpredictable geopolitical vortex. When Islamabad recently responded to Indian provocations—asserting its own sovereignty and refusing to be painted into a corner—the United States responded with diplomatic urgency. And yet, just a day before, US Vice President J.D. Vance told CNN that Washington did not consider itself involved in the matter. The mixed signals could not be clearer. In such a volatile environment, Pakistan must tread with utmost care. A trade deal with the US could offer much-needed economic reprieve. But it must be negotiated from a position of strength, not desperation.
Pakistan should not be seen as a nation chasing handouts or fleeting headlines. Rather, it must present itself as a confident regional player, fully aware of its growing importance to global power dynamics. This is a moment that calls for diplomacy of the highest order. Not the kind that merely seeks short-term economic gain, but the sort that builds alliances for a generation. In a world where friendships are often transactional and fleeting, Pakistan must nurture those relationships built on mutual respect and shared interests. Trust, once lost, is hard to regain. And in a region where the ground shifts with every tweet, press conference, and handshake, Pakistan must ensure that its next step is firm and farsighted. The stakes are high, but so is the potential. The future of South Asia’s stability might just hinge on how Islamabad chooses to navigate this delicate moment.
