By Asghar Ali Mubarak
The Taliban’s long-repeated claim that Afghan soil is not being used for cross-border terrorism has now been decisively punctured, not by Pakistan alone but by the United Nations itself. In its 16th report to the UN Security Council, the Analytical Assistance and Sanctions Monitoring Team describes the Taliban’s denials as “not credible”, warning that Afghanistan is increasingly viewed by neighboring states as a source of regional instability rather than security. More than four years after the Taliban’s return to power, the gulf between their assurances and realities on the ground has become impossible to ignore.
The report is blunt in its assessment. Despite the Taliban’s promises under the 2020 Doha Agreement that Afghan territory would not be used to threaten other countries, multiple UN member states continue to report the presence and activity of a wide spectrum of militant organizations inside Afghanistan. These include Islamic State Khorasan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, al-Qaida, the Turkistan Islamic Party, Jamaat Ansarullah and other regional groups. Some, the report states, are actively using Afghan territory to plan and prepare attacks beyond its borders. This is not an isolated allegation but a consistent pattern documented across successive UN assessments.
The Taliban’s counter-terrorism posture appears selective. While they have taken visible action against ISKP, which they view as an existential rival, their approach towards other groups has been markedly different. Al-Qaida, according to UN monitors, maintains close ties with the Taliban and a permanent presence in several Afghan provinces, operating quietly but with sufficient space to regroup and train. The most serious concern for regional stability, however, is the TTP. The UN describes it as operating from safe bases inside Afghanistan, benefiting from support from elements within the Taliban and carrying out sustained and increasingly sophisticated attacks against Pakistan.
The scale of the violence underscores the gravity of the situation. UN data shows that TTP attacks inside Pakistan have risen steadily throughout 2025, with many operations involving suicide bombers, vehicle-borne explosives and coordinated assault teams. Particularly alarming is the finding that the majority of suicide attackers were Afghan nationals, further undermining Kabul’s insistence that it bears no responsibility for cross-border militancy. Pakistan estimates that around 6,000 TTP fighters are currently based in Afghan provinces including Khost, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktika and Paktia, with the group’s leader, Noor Wali Mehsud, believed to be residing in Kabul. One UN member state has reported that his family receives a substantial monthly stipend from Taliban authorities.
These realities have pushed Pakistan-Afghanistan relations to their lowest point in years. Islamabad has repeatedly presented what it describes as “solid, evidence-based” proof of cross-border terrorism to Kabul and international forums. Pakistani officials argue that border tensions, trade disruptions and military clashes are direct consequences of militant sanctuaries in Afghanistan. UN monitors confirm that TTP attacks have already resulted in casualties, border closures and economic losses, with Afghanistan alone reportedly losing around $1m a day due to suspended trade during periods of heightened tension.
Compounding the threat is the vast stockpile of modern weaponry left behind after the chaotic US withdrawal in 2021. According to the Pentagon, equipment worth approximately $7.1bn remained in Afghanistan, including hundreds of thousands of small arms, night-vision devices, armored vehicles and more than 160 aircraft. Subsequent investigations by the UN, SIGAR and the Washington Post reveal that some of this equipment has already made its way into the hands of the TTP and other militant groups operating against Pakistan. Serial numbers of US-supplied weapons seized inside Pakistan have been traced back to Afghan inventories, and UN reports warn that weak oversight and a thriving black market have accelerated proliferation.
For Pakistan, this is not a theoretical concern. Its military says it conducted more than 67,000 intelligence-based operations this year alone, killing nearly 1,900 militants, including Afghan nationals. Yet officials argue that domestic counter-terrorism efforts cannot compensate for unchecked sanctuaries across the border. Islamabad has called for verifiable action by the Taliban, including dismantling militant infrastructure, restricting movement, and severing ties with the TTP. The UN’s assessment suggests scepticism that such a break is likely, citing historical links, ideological sympathy and doubts over the Taliban’s capacity—or willingness—to confront the group decisively.
(The writer is a senior journalist covering various beats, can be reached at editorial@metro-morning.com)
