By Uzma Ehtasham
Pakistan is approaching a demographic milestone that is as consequential as it is under-discussed. By 2026, according to the United Nations Population Fund, the country’s population is expected to exceed 225 million, placing it among the five most populous nations in the world. Numbers of this scale are often framed in alarmist terms, as an inevitable burden on a fragile economy and overstretched public services. UNFPA’s intervention challenges that reflex. Population growth, it argues, is not destiny. Managed wisely, it can be a strategic asset rather than a liability. Managed poorly, it will deepen inequalities that already define everyday life for millions.
The warning comes with a proposition that cuts to the heart of Pakistan’s governance model. Demography, UNFPA suggests, must move from the margins of policy debate to its center, reshaping how the state plans, allocates resources and measures progress. This is not merely a call for better population control, a phrase long burdened with political and cultural sensitivities, but for smarter integration of population realities into fiscal and development frameworks. At stake is whether Pakistan continues to treat its growing numbers as an afterthought or begins to see people as the core variable around which economic and social planning must revolve.
Nowhere is this tension more visible than in debates around the National Finance Commission award, the formula that determines how federal resources are shared with provinces. Population size has historically been the dominant criterion, a blunt instrument that rewards sheer numbers without sufficient regard for outcomes. UNFPA’s proposal to rethink this approach is quietly radical. It suggests shifting incentives away from population alone and towards measurable progress in gender equality, environmental sustainability, balanced demographic trends, and the quality of health and education services. In other words, provinces would not simply be compensated for having more people, but encouraged to invest in making lives healthier, safer and more productive.
Such a shift would align fiscal policy with human development in a way Pakistan has long struggled to achieve. For decades, the country’s development story has been marked by paradoxes: economic growth without commensurate improvements in social indicators, infrastructure projects alongside stubbornly high maternal mortality, and expanding cities ringed by informal settlements lacking basic services. Population growth has magnified these contradictions, not because people themselves are the problem, but because systems have failed to keep pace with their needs.
UNFPA’s emphasis on evidence-based planning and robust demographic data is therefore more than bureaucratic advice. Pakistan’s planning culture has often relied on outdated statistics, political expediency and short-term fixes. Without accurate, timely data on fertility, migration, age structures and regional disparities, policies are destined to misfire. Stronger demographic intelligence would allow the state to anticipate pressures on schools, hospitals, housing and labor markets rather than reacting after crises emerge. It would also expose uncomfortable truths about regional inequalities that are too easily obscured in national averages.
The urgency of this moment is underscored by the challenges UNFPA identifies. Despite incremental progress, Pakistan continues to record high maternal and child mortality rates, unmet needs for family planning, persistent child marriage and widespread gender-based violence. Access to quality reproductive health services remains deeply unequal, particularly in remote and marginalized regions. These are not isolated failures but interconnected symptoms of a development model that has not adequately centered women’s autonomy, adolescent health or long-term demographic balance.
Slow declines in fertility rates reflect these gaps. Where girls stay in school longer, marry later and have access to reproductive healthcare, family sizes tend to fall naturally. Where poverty, insecurity and social constraints dominate, fertility remains high, reinforcing cycles of deprivation. Population growth, in this sense, mirrors inequality rather than causing it. Addressing it requires interventions that are as social and political as they are technical.
UNFPA’s insistence on sustainable domestic financing is another pointed reminder. Pakistan has often leaned heavily on donor-funded programs for population and reproductive health initiatives, leaving them vulnerable to shifting international priorities. A demographic future of 225 million people cannot be managed through pilot projects and temporary funding streams. It demands long-term national commitment, embedded in budgets and protected from political churn. Without this, even the most elegantly designed reforms will remain aspirational.
There is also a broader narrative challenge. Population discourse in Pakistan has oscillated between denial and despair, either minimizing the issue or presenting it as an existential threat. Both extremes are unhelpful. Treating people as a problem to be solved risks fueling coercive policies and public mistrust. Ignoring demographic pressures, meanwhile, condemns future generations to inherit systems already stretched beyond capacity. UNFPA’s framing offers a more constructive middle ground, one that recognizes population growth as a reality that can be shaped by policy choices.
(The writer is a public health professional, journalist, and possesses expertise in health communication, having keen interest in national and international affairs, can be reached at uzma@metro-morning.com)
