The unfolding dynamics in South and Central Asia carry the potential to reshape the region in ways few could have anticipated. Across the subcontinent, the behavior of major powers towards weaker nations has increasingly exhibited a troubling pattern, as interventions grow more aggressive, calculated, and at times, brazenly opportunistic. In recent years, Bangladesh and Nepal have faced pressures that, while subtle on the surface, were unmistakably coercive, manifesting in political maneuvering that seemed designed to weaken sovereignty under the guise of guidance or support. Today, Iran has emerged as the latest arena for external influence and engineered instability, a situation that has prompted concern far beyond its borders.
History reminds us that one wrong cannot be corrected by another, yet for decades, attempts to foment unrest and turn the Iranian populace against its government have persisted, often with strategic precision. Unlike past episodes of sporadic protest, this wave carries signs of careful orchestration. Anti-government groups occupy streets with a confidence that hints at months, if not years, of preparation. The narrative of a weak national defence, ineffective governance, and mismanagement has been deliberately constructed and widely circulated, amplified through financial support, media channels, and foreign interference. Though many of the instigators of earlier unrest have been neutralized, the persistence and scale of current demonstrations underscore the continuing influence exerted by the United States, Israel, and their allies, who appear intent on reshaping Iran’s political landscape in ways that suit their broader strategic ambitions.
Within this complex environment, Pakistan’s own position remains significant, yet delicate. Decisions in such a context cannot be dictated by fear or reactive impulses; prudence and the long-term national interest must guide policy. Iran is more than a neighboring country; it is a brotherly Islamic nation with which Pakistan has shared historical ties and, over the last seventy-five years, periods of meaningful bilateral engagement. Recent developments, including Pakistan’s public statements supporting both the Iranian government and its people during the Iran-Israel conflict, reflect a desire to uphold these ties. Yet diplomacy in this era has become a fiercely competitive arena, where every state, great or small, seeks advantage, often at the expense of mutual trust and regional cohesion.
Meanwhile, China and Russia, two of the world’s most powerful actors, remain primarily focused on internal stability and the management of resources, limiting their willingness to intervene in conflicts that do not directly threaten their strategic interests. The treatment of Venezuela by the international community serves as a cautionary tale: leaving nations isolated invites exploitation, emboldening hegemonic powers to impose their will on weaker states with little fear of meaningful opposition. Similar forces appear to be at work across South Asia. Extremist groups and aggressive state actors alike leverage instability to advance their agendas, exploiting the vulnerabilities of nations already grappling with domestic challenges.
Pakistan is acutely aware that the protests in Iran are being subtly orchestrated by external powers seeking a regime change that would reverberate far beyond Tehran. Such a shift could place Pakistan in an unwelcome and precarious position, potentially turning it into a frontline in a broader geopolitical contest. History provides clear warnings: Indian and Israeli strategies in Afghanistan transformed the country into a hostile environment against Pakistan, demonstrating the risks of leaving neighboring nations destabilized. Should a similar pattern emerge in Iran, Pakistan could face considerable pressure to align with external objectives, forcing it to navigate a treacherous landscape where competing interests and ideologies intersect dangerously.
The scale of unrest across Iran is unprecedented in recent memory. Protests have intensified in Tehran, Mashhad, and other major cities, spreading to more than 100 towns across all 31 provinces. Human rights organizations report that at least 47 people have been killed and approximately 2,500 arrested. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for national unity, stressing that agitators aim to destroy public property while serving foreign interests. His warnings have extended directly to global leaders, including President Trump, signaling that Iran will not tolerate mercenaries operating on behalf of external powers.
On the diplomatic front, Iran has formally requested the United Nations to uphold its sovereignty and reject interference, condemning external commentary as both deceptive and hostile. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has emphasized that much of the nation’s economic hardship stems from illegal and punitive sanctions imposed by the United States, compounded by what it describes as psychological and media warfare. While peaceful protests are constitutionally recognized, and genuine public grievances are to be addressed through legal channels, the broader context remains one of profound external pressure, with economic, political, and even military tools deployed to influence the nation’s internal affairs. President Trump’s statements have further underscored the evolving realities of global power.
By asserting near-unrestricted authority to act militarily, constrained only by personal ethics and judgment, he highlighted a shift in how international influence is exercised: increasingly unilaterally, with smaller nations left vulnerable to the ripple effects of distant calculations. In such a context, conventional diplomacy often struggles to keep pace with rapid, high-stakes maneuvering. For Pakistan, Iran, and their regional neighbors, the stakes are high. The challenge is not only to safeguard borders and sovereignty but to do so while maintaining strategic independence and regional solidarity, balancing the competing interests of global powers without compromising national interests. The lessons of recent history are stark. Nations that fail to anticipate the intentions of powerful actors risk being drawn into conflicts not of their making, while those that navigate the diplomatic landscape with foresight and restraint can maintain stability even amid turbulence.
For Pakistan, the unfolding situation in Iran is more than a distant concern; it is a strategic test, one that demands prudence, cohesion, and an unwavering commitment to national and regional security. The coming months will reveal whether diplomacy, careful calculation, and solidarity among regional actors can prevail over engineered unrest and external pressure, or whether the forces seeking to exploit instability will succeed in reshaping the political contours of South and Central Asia. In this context, the region stands at a crossroads. The decisions made by Pakistan, Iran, and their neighbors will reverberate far beyond their borders, shaping alliances, conflicts, and the broader balance of power for years to come. What remains clear is that a careful, principled, and strategically coherent response is essential—not only to protect national interests but to prevent the region from descending further into uncertainty, conflict, and external domination.
