By Asghar Ali Mubarak
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) stands as the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), representing a significant investment of billions of dollars from China into Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy, trade, and transportation sectors. However, the emergence of the Quad—a coalition of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia—poses a potential threat to the robust ties between Pakistan and China, specifically in relation to CPEC. The Quad is undeniably an anti-China alliance, and it stands in stark contrast to the ‘higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the ocean’ relationship that Pakistan shares with China. This bond has been tested by the perennial enmity between India and Pakistan, a rivalry that the United States and India have leveraged to counter China’s growing influence in the region. The Quad’s objectives are clear: to exert control over China’s expanding power. In response, China has vigorously opposed the Quad, raising questions about whether this coalition could create economic challenges for CPEC.
Critics of CPEC are not only undermining the China-Pakistan relationship but are also actively seeking to weaken the project itself. The Quad has a specific agenda—counterbalancing India, with China serving as a critical pillar in Pakistan’s strategy. The United States is utilizing India and other countries to further its objectives against China. The Quad’s recent statements have emphasized a “shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” alongside a rules-based maritime order in the East and South China Seas aimed at countering Chinese claims. China’s attempts to expand its influence through the BRI have made it a major player in the Indo-Pacific, becoming a persistent headache for the United States. The BRI’s objectives include establishing secure trade routes, providing overseas markets for Chinese companies, and energizing the economies of China’s central provinces. China has been the first to label the Quad as a sort of Asian NATO, vocally opposing its formation and prompting Australia to initially distance itself from the alliance due to Chinese pressure.
The Quad represents a potential source of direct security and economic challenges for Pakistan. Experts on international affairs highlight India’s presence within the Quad as a point of concern for Pakistan. The Quad is significant for Pakistan in two major respects: its anti-China stance and India’s participation. The ongoing tensions between China and India further validate the Quad’s positioning as an adversary to China. In a joint statement, Quad members have clearly alluded to the growing military might of China, without directly naming the source of their concerns. Notably, the statement referenced the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that an economically strong Pakistan would be better positioned to counter any emerging threats. The United States and India are apprehensive about China’s expanding influence, and the U.S. seeks to establish its dominance in the Indian Ocean, a move that could adversely impact Pakistan due to its close ties with China.
The United States is attempting to reinvigorate a Cold War-like relationship with Pakistan, hoping to realign Pakistan’s policies against Chinese interests. However, this is not a feasible option for Pakistan, as its relationship with China is crucial for its economic stability. The stronger the Quad becomes, the greater the potential for increased challenges for Pakistan, particularly concerning its security policies. To navigate this complex landscape, Pakistan must focus on geoeconomics, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance the economic welfare of its citizens. An economically robust Pakistan will be better positioned to confront any external threats. Internally, economic stability is crucial for safeguarding the country against international conspiracies or opposition. Pakistan must accelerate its efforts towards political and economic stability, with the roles of political parties and state institutions being pivotal.
Pakistan could also protect its interests by aligning itself with Russia and Iran, forming a formidable block in cooperation with China. An alliance between Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey could present a united front against U.S. and Indian agendas. The recent hot mic incident during President Biden’s meeting with Quad leaders highlighted the urgency of their strategic discussions concerning security and defense in the Indo-Pacific region. In the context of U.S.-China relations, President Biden emphasized the need for robust diplomacy to face China’s aggressive maneuvers across multiple fronts, including economic and technological domains. Biden’s remarks regarding Xi Jinping’s quest for diplomatic space to further his aggressive interests are particularly significant given the ongoing maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
The Quad summit underscored the commitment to enhance security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and address illegal fishing activities predominantly conducted by Chinese vessels. As President Biden prepares for the upcoming elections, uncertainties loom over the future of the Quad. The potential transition in U.S. leadership could impact the coalition’s stability and effectiveness. The question remains: will the Quad endure beyond Biden’s presidency? If Trump returns to power, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, along with the Quad’s efficacy, may change dramatically. In conclusion, while the Quad aims to present an alternative to China’s influence, it must be recognized that Pakistan’s strategic interests lie firmly with its long-standing ally, China. Balancing these relationships amid global power shifts will be crucial for Pakistan’s national security and economic resilience in the coming years.
(The writer is a senior journalist covering various beats, can be reached at news@metro-morning.com)
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