By Asghar Ali Mubarak
Water has always been the lifeblood of Pakistan. For a country whose economy and sustenance are deeply intertwined with agriculture, the rivers that flow from the valleys of Kashmir are far more than geographical features; they are the arteries upon which millions of livelihoods depend. Yet, in recent years, these lifelines have increasingly become instruments of contention, as India’s construction of dams and hydroelectric projects on rivers feeding Pakistan has been framed by Islamabad as an existential threat. The rhetoric is stark but deliberate: any attempt to impede Pakistan’s water supply is considered a “declaration of war.”
The roots of this crisis lie in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, an agreement brokered over nine years with the mediation of the World Bank. It allocated 80 percent of the waters of the western rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan, while India received rights over the eastern rivers, namely the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The treaty was more than a technical distribution of water; it was a blueprint for peace and stability in a region historically riven by conflict. It established the Permanent Indus Commission to oversee implementation, resolve disputes, and ensure that both nations acted in good faith. For decades, this agreement has held, even amidst wars, political upheavals, and intermittent tensions.
But in recent years, cracks have appeared in this framework. Projects such as the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab, the Kishanganga on the Neelum, and the under-construction Ratle and Pakal Dil schemes have provoked alarm in Islamabad. Pakistan argues that India’s unilateral actions—particularly projects that reduce water flow or fail to provide prior notifications—violate the treaty and endanger the livelihoods of millions downstream. The situation escalated in April 2025, when India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack in occupied Kashmir, citing security concerns. Pakistan rejected this suspension as illegal, reiterating that the treaty is a binding international agreement, the unilateral breach of which undermines regional stability and international law.
The stakes could not be higher. Experts warn that a reduction in the flow of the Chenab, Jhelum, or Indus could directly threaten agriculture, food security, and the broader economy. In December 2025, officials reported that water retention by India had reduced flows in the Chenab and Jhelum rivers by up to 90 percent, threatening crops across Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar described India’s actions as “illegal and irresponsible,” warning of a potential humanitarian crisis. According to Islamabad, the manipulation of water is not merely a technical dispute; it is a deliberate strategy of coercion, a “weaponization of water” aimed at undermining Pakistan’s economic and social stability.
The legal and diplomatic responses have been robust. Pakistan has repeatedly engaged its Indian counterpart through the procedures laid out in the Indus Waters Treaty and has taken the matter to international forums, including arbitration courts. In June 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hong Kong ruled in Pakistan’s favour, affirming that India cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty or halt dispute-resolution mechanisms. The court emphasised that treaty obligations must be fulfilled, and arbitration must proceed in a timely and fair manner. Pakistan welcomed the ruling, presenting it as evidence that water is a lifeline that cannot be manipulated without international accountability.
The tension is compounded by India’s repeated attempts to frame the dispute in broader political terms. Officials in Islamabad point to a pattern of Indian behavior that combines territorial aggression in occupied Jammu and Kashmir with support for extremism and regional instability. The Kulbhushan Jadhav case, allegations of cross-border terrorism, and the continued occupation of Kashmir are cited as part of a broader pattern in which water manipulation becomes one facet of a larger strategy. Pakistan maintains that it will continue to provide political, moral, and diplomatic support to Kashmiris seeking their right to self-determination, while protecting the rights of its own citizens under international law.
(The writer is a senior journalist covering various beats, can be reached at editorial@metro-morning.com)
