While the Modi–Putin summit dominated international headlines, a quieter yet equally consequential realignment has been taking shape: Pakistan’s ties with Russia are entering a new, more structured phase. For years, engagements between Islamabad and Moscow have been episodic, punctuated by sporadic diplomacy or energy deals. Now, however, the two countries appear to be moving toward a forward-looking partnership driven by connectivity, regional stability, and shared economic imperatives, signaling a strategic recalibration in the heart of Eurasia. Two parallel events underscore this shift. The Pakistan–Russia Eurasia Forum 2025 in Moscow, followed by the 10th Intergovernmental Commission meeting in Islamabad, illustrated a relationship evolving from historical formality toward practical cooperation.
Both events highlighted a central challenge that has long constrained bilateral economic interaction: the lack of reliable multimodal transport infrastructure and the institutional mechanisms needed to support it. At a time when global supply chains are being reoriented and emerging powers are investing heavily in alternative corridors, these gaps are increasingly unsustainable. Pakistan, with a population of 250 million and a growing middle class estimated at 100 million, represents a market of considerable size. Its GDP in purchasing power parity terms has more than doubled over the past five years, now standing at roughly $1.7 trillion, though growth remains constrained by ageing infrastructure, recurring natural disasters, and energy insecurity.
Nevertheless, there is scope for industrial modernization and economic transformation, particularly if connectivity challenges can be addressed. China, recognizing this potential, has already committed $90 billion under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, positioning Pakistan as a critical logistical extension of its manufacturing ecosystem. Russia, meanwhile, brings complementary strengths. Its economy, valued at $6.9 trillion, boasts deep capabilities in energy, metals, machinery, and advanced technologies. Yet bilateral trade with Pakistan barely exceeds $1 billion, a fraction of the potential both sides now recognize. Analysts suggest that with the right logistical and institutional frameworks, trade could reach $5 billion by 2035.
The emerging infrastructure initiatives, most notably the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), are central to realizing this potential. Spanning Iran, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and western China, the corridor offers a terrestrial gateway for Pakistan to access Russian markets and Muslim-majority regions stretching from Turkey to the Levant, representing a combined population of over 150 million. For Moscow, INSTC provides faster access to the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, enhancing both commercial networks and diplomatic reach. The Eurasia Forum conveyed this sense of transition. Organized jointly by Pakistani and Russian institutions, it drew academics, civil society actors, private-sector representatives, and policymakers into discussions on long-term cooperation.
The message was clear: the partnership must be driven by contemporary economic interests—energy security, diversified trade, and infrastructure connectivity—rather than historical alignments or episodic gestures. Strategically, Pakistan’s position is increasingly shaped by its dual desire to link western Eurasia with eastern Asia. Its western borderlands remain volatile, with insurgency and militancy in regions such as Balochistan requiring continued attention. China, deeply invested in the stability of corridors connecting to Xinjiang, also monitors these developments closely. For Islamabad, regional integration is now inseparable from economic growth; the ability to function as a transit hub and connect to emerging markets has become as important as domestic reforms.
Energy cooperation has already taken on practical significance. Pakistan began purchasing discounted Russian crude in 2023, signaling a pragmatic shift towards diversified energy supply. The long-delayed Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, designed to transport up to 12.4 billion cubic meters annually, remains central to both industrial revitalization and energy security. Russia’s interest in modernizing Pakistan Steel Mills, a potential $2 billion investment, further hints at a deepening industrial partnership, one that could position Moscow as Pakistan’s largest foreign investor after China and Saudi Arabia. Agriculture provides another point of alignment. As Pakistan’s wheat output faces climate-induced pressures, reliance on external suppliers becomes inevitable.
Russia, controlling more than a fifth of global wheat exports and significant sunflower oil production, is well placed to support Pakistan’s food security. Cross-trading arrangements, such as exchanging Pakistani citrus for Russian pulses, are already underway, suggesting the early stages of a balanced agricultural relationship. The energy crisis in Pakistan adds urgency to these collaborations. Soaring tariffs, domestic gas price hikes of up to 850 per cent, and disruptions to electricity supply from neighboring countries create a pressing need for stable partners. Russia’s potential role in supplying gas, LNG, and even nuclear infrastructure positions it as a reliable alternative in an increasingly unpredictable regional environment. Economic pragmatism, rather than purely geopolitical alignment, now drives Islamabad’s engagement with Moscow.
Institutionalization of cooperation is also underway. Both countries are finalizing the Russia–Pakistan Economic Cooperation Program 2030, modelled partly on Russia’s framework with India. It seeks to formalize collaboration across energy, finance, industry, agriculture, transport, and technology. Technical agreements signed during the intergovernmental commission—covering standards, competition law, and media cooperation—may seem bureaucratic, yet they form the scaffolding required for sustained economic partnership. Discussions about integrating payment systems with Russia’s SPFS and China’s CIPS highlight a pragmatic approach to mitigating the risks of sanctions-related disruptions to international trade.
The most transformative potential lies in the full integration of INSTC with China–Pakistan routes. If realized, this corridor could cut cargo transit times between Russia and South Asia by up to 40 per cent and reduce shipping costs by nearly a third. Pilot trains are already operational, joint ventures for multimodal freight are being explored, and Iran–Pakistan extensions are in discussion. Beyond logistics, the corridor could redefine Pakistan’s role in Eurasia, enabling it to serve as a hub for markets spanning Central Asia, Afghanistan, and South Asia more broadly.
In essence, Pakistan–Russia relations are evolving from transactional diplomacy to strategic partnership, anchored in trade, connectivity, and energy security. The two countries appear determined not merely to adapt to a shifting Eurasian landscape, but to shape it. As global supply chains fragment and new corridors are built, the partnership promises to rewrite economic and geopolitical equations across the region, positioning Pakistan as a key node in an emerging Eurasian network.
