By S.M. Inam
What the public has been shouting across Pakistan for months, but the government seemed unwilling or unable to hear, is now being acknowledged by the International Monetary Fund. Perhaps this external validation will finally force those in power to confront a reality they have long chosen to ignore: rising inflation is steadily pushing ordinary citizens deeper into hardship. In a recent report, the IMF warned of renewed inflationary pressures in Pakistan, projecting that the inflation rate, which stood at 3.2% in June 2025, could climb to 8.9% by June 2026. The figures puncture the self-congratulatory narrative carefully cultivated by the government in recent months.
According to the same report, unemployment may show only a marginal decline, while the burden of public debt is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the current fiscal year. Foreign exchange reserves may increase to $17.8bn in 2026, up from $14.5bn in 2025, but even this improvement offers little comfort to households struggling to afford basic necessities. These sober assessments sit uneasily alongside the triumphant claims repeatedly made by federal ministers. Inflation, the public was told, had been pushed back by 60 years. The economy, they insisted, was firmly on the path to recovery. Foreign investment, they said, was pouring in.
On paper, and in official briefings, this version of events may have looked convincing. On the ground, it has rung hollow. If economic stability were truly taking hold, its first and clearest sign would be visible in the daily lives of ordinary people. That has simply not happened. Notably absent from official rhetoric has been any serious reference to the prices of essential goods. Instead, the government has relied almost exclusively on reports from international financial institutions to claim that inflation is under control. These abstract indicators may satisfy donors and lenders, but they offer little reassurance to families who calculate inflation not in percentages, but in the rising cost of flour, pulses, electricity bills and transport fares.
For them, the economy is not improving; it is tightening its grip. The uncomfortable truth is that, under pressure from the IMF, the government has repeatedly raised the prices of petroleum products, electricity and gas, while simultaneously increasing the tax burden on salaried individuals. These measures may have helped meet fiscal targets, but they have also made daily life increasingly unaffordable for large sections of society. The cost of “stabilization” has been transferred almost entirely onto those least able to bear it. It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that there appears to be a profound disconnect between policymakers and public suffering.
The prime minister, federal ministers and advisers do not stand in queues to buy subsidized flour, nor do they choose between paying utility bills and purchasing groceries. Shielded from these realities, they are free to make sweeping claims about economic recovery without confronting their consequences. This distance from everyday hardship allows rhetoric to flourish where empathy should prevail. Now that the IMF itself has acknowledged the likelihood of rising inflation, the government no longer has the excuse of selective statistics. The warning should serve as a moment of reckoning. If those in power remain unmoved even by the assessments of their most influential lender, it will confirm what many citizens already believe: that economic policy is being shaped for balance sheets, not for people.
An editorial perspective demands more than criticism; it requires a clear articulation of alternatives. If the government is genuinely serious about reducing inflation and strengthening the economy, it must rethink its priorities. The first step should be an honest reassessment of public spending. Lavish privileges, perks and unchecked expenditures enjoyed by the elite continue to drain the national exchequer, while calls for austerity are directed almost exclusively at the poor and middle classes. This imbalance is neither economically sound nor morally defensible. Equally urgent is the need to break Pakistan’s chronic dependence on institutions such as the IMF. Repeated bailouts have become a substitute for structural reform, locking the country into a cycle of borrowing, adjustment and social pain.
Escaping this trap will not be easy, but it will never happen without political will. Broadening the tax base, tackling elite capture of state resources, and investing in productive sectors rather than short-term fixes are difficult choices, but they are unavoidable. Ultimately, inflation is not merely an economic indicator; it is a political and social stress test. When prices rise unchecked, trust in institutions erodes and the social contract frays. The IMF’s warning should not be treated as another technical report to be managed through press releases. It is a reflection of lived reality, one that Pakistan’s citizens have been articulating for far longer. The question now is whether the government is prepared to listen — not to international lenders alone, but to the people who bear the daily cost of its decisions.
(The writer is a former government officer and a senior analyst on national and international affairs, can be reached at inam@metro-morning.com)
