By S.M. Inam
World Bank President Ajay Banga’s recent remarks on Pakistan’s economic trajectory have cast a stark and urgent light on the country’s long-term challenges, highlighting a reality that many analysts have long feared but few have articulated with such clarity. Speaking with characteristic candor, Banga warned that unless Pakistan generates at least three million new jobs each year over the next decade, the country faces a convergence of pressures that could prove destabilizing. The growing youth population, he noted, is a double-edged sword: a demographic dividend if harnessed through employment and skill development, yet a potential source of social unrest, outward migration, and economic stagnation if opportunities fail to materialize.
Banga’s assessment was neither a simple critique nor a lecture from an international lender; it was a call to action. Sustainable growth, he emphasized, will require both policy discipline and consistent, targeted investment. For Pakistan, this message is urgent. The country has struggled for decades to balance short-term fiscal pressures with the structural reforms necessary to achieve sustained development. While headline GDP figures may sometimes signal recovery, the underlying drivers of growth—jobs, energy security, and institutional effectiveness—remain fragile. Confirming the World Bank’s commitment, Banga reiterated that an annual partnership of four billion dollars would continue, aimed at strengthening development projects and institutional reforms across sectors.
Yet alongside this reassurance, he singled out a persistent impediment to growth: electricity. Chronic losses in the power sector have repeatedly undermined investment, inflating costs for businesses and households alike and eroding confidence in Pakistan’s capacity to sustain long-term economic expansion. These structural weaknesses, as Banga underscored, are not merely technical problems; they are economic and social barriers, shaping the prospects of millions of citizens whose livelihoods depend on reliable power and predictable costs. History offers lessons in both caution and opportunity. Previous attempts to shift transport toward compressed natural gas were initially lauded as a pathway to a greener, more affordable energy system.
More recently, initiatives to encourage household and commercial polarization have demonstrated the potential to ease pressure on Pakistan’s strained grid, while simultaneously reducing costs for consumers. Yet, rather than being nurtured, these early efforts have been hampered by contradictory policies. Where electricity for general consumers can reach sixty rupees per unit, solar-generated power—initially purchased at twenty-five rupees—is now being reduced to eleven, sending a confusing and discouraging signal to innovators and early adopters. Such inconsistency is emblematic of a wider challenge: policy incoherence has repeatedly stifled progress, discouraging both domestic investment and the confidence of international partners. Banga’s commentary also resonates in the context of Pakistan’s experience with international financial support.
IMF bailouts, intended ostensibly to stabilize the economy and improve conditions for ordinary citizens, have often disproportionately benefited elites, allowing structural inefficiencies and inequities to persist. In this light, the World Bank president’s focus on job creation and energy reform appears not only realistic but essential. Pakistan is, after all, a country rich in resources and human potential. Yet mismanagement, political inertia, and corruption have repeatedly squandered opportunities, leaving citizens to bear the costs of systemic failures. The broader implication of Banga’s message is clear: international assistance can provide a lifeline, but it cannot substitute for domestic political will. The World Bank has identified core economic weaknesses, offered actionable solutions, and committed substantial resources.
The challenge now falls squarely on Pakistan’s policymakers. Translating advice into decisive, sustained reform will require courage and consistency—qualities that have too often been in short supply. Without such commitment, even generous international support risks being little more than a temporary reprieve, a pause rather than a turning point in the country’s economic trajectory. At the heart of these challenges is the question of employment. Generating three million jobs annually is not merely a numerical target; it is a test of Pakistan’s capacity to mobilize its industrial, agricultural, and services sectors, to harness technological innovation, and to improve governance in ways that directly benefit citizens.
Success will demand careful coordination across ministries, private sector engagement, and a commitment to long-term investment that transcends electoral cycles. Failure, by contrast, could intensify social and political pressures, fuel migration, and deepen inequality, with consequences that reach far beyond the economy. Energy reform, too, remains a critical priority. Chronic inefficiencies and financial losses in the power sector have long constrained growth, yet targeted reforms could unlock significant potential. Modernizing infrastructure, incentivizing renewable energy adoption, and clarifying pricing mechanisms are all measures that can deliver both economic and social dividends.
(The writer is a former government officer and a senior analyst on national and international affairs, can be reached at inam@metro-morning.com)
