By Ahsan Mughal
Karachi: Pakistan’s Meteorological Department has issued a weather outlook for the spring season, predicting above-normal rainfall and higher-than-usual temperatures across the country from March to May 2026.
The three-month forecast warns of increased heat in many regions, while northern and central areas may experience heavier rainfall due to strengthening westerly winds.
Rainfall patterns
The Met Department expects rainfall to remain above normal in central and western Pakistan during the spring season. Southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, central Punjab, and northern Balochistan are likely to receive heavier precipitation. Sindh, along with central and southern Balochistan, is expected to see normal rainfall, though occasional rain systems may occur as westerly winds affect the region.
Rising temperatures
Above-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the country, with the northern regions—Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—expected to experience the most significant increases. March is likely to be hotter than usual, continuing a warming trend already observed in February 2026.
Heavy rains possible in March and April
Meteorologists predict periods of rain with thunderstorms and strong winds in northern regions from March 6 to 11, affecting upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan. Islamabad, Murree, Galiyat, and the Potohar region may also see rain on March 10 and 11.
Heat intensifies in plains
Plain areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad, and Punjab are expected to remain hot and dry. Northern Balochistan may see temperatures rise up to 8°C above normal, while southern Sindh and Balochistan could experience increases of around 7°C.
The Met Department has issued a heatwave warning for parts of Sindh. Deputy Director Irfan Virk noted that temperatures in some areas have already crossed 37°C, and if they reach 40°C, the risk of a severe heatwave will increase.
Ramazan weather and glacial flood risk
During Ramazan, upper areas may remain cold while plains continue to see higher temperatures. Westerly wind systems may bring rain to northern regions. Authorities have also warned of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to rising temperatures, posing risks to local communities and infrastructure.
Impact on agriculture and water resources
Prolonged dry conditions combined with rising temperatures could stress water resources and affect rain-fed wheat crops. Higher temperatures are expected to increase water demand across agricultural and urban areas.
Advice to citizens
The Met Department advises staying updated on weather forecasts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and glacial flooding, as the spring season brings changing weather patterns across Pakistan.
#PakistanWeather #MetDept #SpringForecast #RainfallAlert #HeatwaveWarning #GilgitBaltistan #KhyberPakhtunkhwa #Sindh #Punjab #ClimateUpdate #ISLAMABAD
