By Sudhir Ahmed Afridi
A deep analysis of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran reveals that its consequences have never been confined to the direct combatants alone. Instead, the politics, economics and diplomacy of the entire world are being altered in real time. First and foremost stands Iran, the country most immediately devastated. Its infrastructure lies in ruins. It has suffered grievous losses of life and treasure. And most calamitous of all, its senior civilian and military leadership has been obliterated. Next in line for the heaviest toll are the Gulf states, whose economies, tourism sectors, energy industries and regional prestige have been dealt a shattering blow, further destabilizing an already volatile neighborhood. On the other side, Israel too has paid a conspicuous price, both economically and diplomatically.
Questions are now being asked about the effectiveness of its vaunted defence systems, from Iron Dome to David’s Sling. Public sentiment across the world has darkened, with anger and revulsion towards Israel visibly on the rise. In many circles, the impression has taken hold that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, played a role in dragging the American president, Donald Trump, into this war – a view that American journalists, politicians and intellectuals themselves have not hesitated to voice. Then comes Europe, now under severe strain as a result of the conflict. Europe’s dependence on Arab countries and Russia to meet its energy needs, combined with the spectre of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, has placed its entire economy and way of life in jeopardy.
This explains why European nations are desperate for an early end to the fighting: their own national interests are at stake. Fourth is America itself, grappling with mounting war expenditures. It is against this backdrop that Trump spoke of making the Gulf states bear the costs of the war against Iran. Sustained military operations have depleted American and Israeli missile stockpiles, forcing them to seek defensive assistance from countries such as Japan, South Korea and Poland. Though American arms manufacturers have profited from the situation, the net effect on the US economy has been markedly negative. Politically and strategically, this war signals another momentous shift. For the first time, deep rifts between the United States and its allies – particularly Europe – have emerged into full view.
Even American statements concerning Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, have inflamed European opinion. Moreover, a significant number of European countries regard the war against Iran as illegal and unjust, leading them to see America and Israel as aggressors. All of this has weakened the very idea of American primacy. Russia and China, for their part, have pursued strategies tailored to their own interests. Already locked in confrontation with America over the war in Ukraine, Russia has aligned itself with Iran politically, militarily and defensively, reaping various advantages from the conflict. China, with characteristic caution, is protecting its interests – particularly its oil purchases from Iran – while extending moral and political support to Tehran in light of the precarious situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Should America and Israel ultimately be forced into defeat or a humiliating accord, the greatest beneficiaries are likely to be Russia and China, whose influence in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf could grow considerably. For Pakistan, this situation has proved positive in several respects. One signal achievement: after nearly 47 years, the leadership of the United States and Iran was brought to the negotiating table in Islamabad, highlighting Pakistan’s diplomatic capabilities. The ceasefire and its subsequent extension earned global recognition for Pakistan’s constructive role. Furthermore, amid fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of Gwadar port has increased, prompting accelerated efforts to operationalize and expand it.
Karachi port, too, has become a focus of global attention, creating fresh economic opportunities for Pakistan. The war has also transformed Gulf security perceptions. Iran’s missile strikes made it brutally clear that even America’s presence cannot guarantee complete protection. In response, Saudi Arabia has entered into a defence agreement with Pakistan, while Qatar, Egypt and Turkey have also expressed keen interest in doing the same – developments that have further burnished Pakistan’s international standing. The United Arab Emirates, by contrast, has faced criticism across the Muslim world for its support of America, suffering damage to its own reputation. In short, this war is not merely rearranging the regional order; it is recalibrating the global balance of power, and its effects will only become more pronounced in the years ahead.
(The writer is a senior journalist at tribal region, covers various beats, can be reached at editorial@metro-morning.com)
