By Mahnoor Sarwar
The post-Cold War order, built on the assumption of a universally accepted rules-based system and sustained by American hegemony, is facing a profound crisis. The 2026 Global Peace Index confirms that the world is experiencing the highest number of active conflicts since 1946, with the ongoing Iran war emerging as a critical stress test for an already fractured international system. The response of the global community, reflected in recent forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meetings, reveals a troubling reality: multilateral institutions are increasingly paralyzed by intensifying great-power rivalry.
While representatives gather to express concerns over issues ranging from the weaponization of water and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza to instability in the Gulf region, they are often operating within a framework whose authority is being weakened by the very states it was created to regulate. The international system is no longer defined by a single dominant power capable of enforcing global rules. The era of relying on one hegemon to maintain order has ended. The transition towards a multipolar world is not merely a temporary phase but the emerging structure of international relations. In this changing environment, middle powers such as Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Türkiye find themselves at a decisive moment.
To prevent the world from descending into a purely transactional system driven by short-term interests and power politics, these nations must adopt a new strategic approach. Stability will not come from attempting to restore the old order but from helping to build a new “pivotal-power” architecture based on flexible, issue-specific and polycentric cooperation. The greatest challenge facing the existing rules-based order is its inability to respond effectively to modern crises. The United Nations Security Council, once considered the foundation of collective security, has increasingly become trapped in political deadlock, with veto powers frequently used to block meaningful action.
As Pakistan’s deputy prime minister highlighted at the ASEAN Regional Forum, unresolved disputes such as Kashmir, which affects hundreds of millions of people, continue to persist partly because of institutional stagnation. The deeper problem is that global governance structures remain designed for a previous century, while today’s challenges are interconnected and borderless. Climate change, artificial intelligence-driven warfare, cyber threats and resource insecurity cannot be addressed through traditional state-centric approaches alone. The weakening of international institutions has created a dangerous vacuum, encouraging states to increasingly rely on military strength and unilateral action to pursue political objectives.
In this environment, middle powers must move beyond the role of passive supporters of the existing system and become active architects of a new global framework. The traditional middle-power strategy, centered on resilience, strategic autonomy and flexible partnerships, provides an important foundation. However, the future requires a broader approach: a “pivotal-power” model where influence is determined not simply by economic or military weight, but by a country’s ability to provide solutions to specific global challenges. Under this framework, relevance is created through capability. A nation becomes important because it possesses something the international community needs — whether diplomatic influence, geographic importance, technological expertise, energy resources or mediation capacity.
For Pakistan, this approach is not simply a diplomatic choice but a strategic necessity. The country’s recent role in facilitating dialogue between the United States and Iran, which resulted in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, demonstrates the potential of pivotal-power diplomacy. Pakistan used its geographic location and diplomatic relationships to become a useful intermediary in a highly sensitive regional dispute. This model reflects the future of international engagement: not broad alliances built around ideological similarity, but practical partnerships formed around shared interests and specific challenges. At the same time, Pakistan and other middle powers must maintain strategic balance.
Navigating relations with major powers such as China, Russia and the United States requires careful diplomacy to avoid becoming entangled in rivalries while protecting national interests. Strategic autonomy will depend on flexibility, credibility and the ability to engage multiple partners simultaneously. To translate this vision into reality, the international community must pursue several practical reforms between 2026 and 2028, ahead of the United Nations’ review of the Pact for the Future. The first priority should be the creation of functional rather than ideological coalitions. The world must move away from rigid “us versus them” alliances and instead develop partnerships designed to solve specific problems.
The world is not inevitably moving towards chaos; it is moving towards a more complex and contested multipolar system. The 2024 Pact for the Future offers a framework for addressing these challenges, but its success will depend on whether new forms of leadership emerge. The coming years present a crucial opportunity for middle powers to prove that they can become architects of peace rather than merely observers of conflict. The future will not be secured by nostalgia for a previous global order or by accepting instability as inevitable. It will depend on building a resilient, practical and inclusive international system capable of addressing the challenges of a changing world.
(The writer is a political student and a researcher. She is keen to put through her opinion on social and political issues. She can be reached at editorial@metro-morning.com)
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