By Uzma Ehtasham
The latest release of water from India’s Salal dam has once again exposed Pakistan’s vulnerability to events beyond its borders, but it has also highlighted a more uncomfortable truth: the country remains dangerously unprepared for threats that return with depressing regularity. India has reportedly opened the gates of the Salal dam for the 12th time, releasing a flood surge of about 150,000 cusecs. The increased flow is expected to place heavy pressure on Head Marala, Chanaki, Qadirabad and Hariyani along the Chenab. Authorities in areas bordering the river have been placed on alert, while a high-level flood wave is expected to pass Head Marala within 48 hours. The immediate concern is compounded by the wider monsoon situation.
Tarbela dam has reached its maximum storage level, while Mangla dam is reported to be about 68% full. Low-level flooding has already been reported at Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma and Taunsa along the Indus. The River Ravi and Chenab may also experience low-level flooding over the next 24 to 48 hours, while the Meteorological Department has warned of the possibility of medium-level flooding in streams and hill torrents linked to the Ravi and Chenab between 17 and 21 August. Heavy rain is expected across parts of Islamabad, Kashmir and Punjab, including Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot and Sheikhupura. Several districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Peshawar, Mardan, Swat, Abbottabad and Haripur, have also been warned of heavy rainfall.
Further rain is expected in the upper Indus basin, Dera Ghazi Khan, Mianwali and parts of Balochistan. The upper reaches of the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are also under a heavy-rain alert, while parts of Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan face the risk of thunderstorms and rain. These warnings should not be treated as routine seasonal announcements. Pakistan has lived through enough floods to know that the difference between an alert and a disaster often depends on what happens after the warning is issued. There is a legitimate concern in Pakistan over the repeated release of water from Indian dams, particularly when downstream communities are already facing heavy monsoon flows.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has made water management between the two countries even more politically sensitive. Any sudden release of water without adequate notification can create serious risks for downstream populations. Islamabad must therefore continue to press for transparency, timely information and adherence to international obligations governing transboundary rivers. But blaming India cannot become a substitute for preparing Pakistan. This is the more difficult part of the debate. India’s actions may add to Pakistan’s risks, but Pakistan’s vulnerability is also the result of weaknesses that have been visible for decades. The country knows when the monsoon arrives. It knows which rivers overflow first, which embankments are fragile, which settlements are exposed and which drainage systems fail.
Yet every year the response begins as if the floods were an entirely unexpected event. The condition of the country’s major reservoirs offers an especially striking contradiction. Tarbela has reached full capacity and Mangla is holding substantial volumes of water. In another context, full reservoirs would be celebrated as an economic advantage, promising greater hydropower generation and stronger support for agriculture. Yet Pakistan continues to suffer prolonged power cuts. Urban and rural communities alike spend hours without electricity, industries struggle with interruptions and households face the combined burden of heat and unreliable power. The problem, therefore, is not simply whether Pakistan has water. It is whether the country can manage the resources it possesses.
Water stored in reservoirs has little value if generation, transmission and distribution systems cannot turn that resource into reliable electricity. The same principle applies to flood management. A country can build dams, issue warnings and hold meetings, but none of these measures is enough if the institutions responsible for them cannot work together effectively. Pakistan’s experience with flooding should have produced a far more resilient system by now. The devastation of the 2022 floods remains fresh in the national memory. Millions were affected, homes and livelihoods were destroyed, agricultural land was damaged and enormous economic losses were suffered. There were promises of reconstruction and resilience, alongside international assistance and ambitious plans.
Yet the recurring weaknesses remain visible: inadequate drainage, vulnerable embankments, settlements in flood-prone areas and poor maintenance of waterways. The cycle is familiar. Rain arrives, warnings are issued, emergency meetings are held and evacuations begin. Once the water recedes, attention shifts elsewhere. The political urgency disappears, maintenance is postponed and long-term reforms are left unfinished. Then the next monsoon arrives and the country discovers the same weaknesses all over again. The institutions responsible for managing these risks cannot be allowed to operate merely as names on official documents. The Meteorological Department, the Flood Forecasting Division, Wapda, the National Disaster Management Authority, provincial disaster management bodies and local administrations all have distinct responsibilities.
Their effectiveness depends not only on the quality of their forecasts but also on coordination, preparation and the ability to act before disaster strikes. There must be greater attention to the maintenance of dams and embankments, the clearance of drainage channels and the protection of natural waterways from encroachment. Local administrations need clear evacuation plans, functioning emergency shelters and reliable communication systems. Communities living in vulnerable areas should not have to wait until floodwaters enter their homes before being told where to go. This also requires accountability. Funds allocated for flood protection and disaster preparedness must be spent for their intended purpose.
Emergency agencies should prepare for the possibility that several flood threats could develop simultaneously as rainfall continues. But the larger task will begin after the waters recede. Pakistan cannot control the weather, and it cannot determine the policies of a neighboring country. Climate change will continue to make extreme rainfall and unpredictable weather more difficult to manage. Yet the country can control the quality of its institutions, the seriousness of its planning and the way it uses its resources. The greatest danger is not that floods will return. They will. The danger is that Pakistan will continue responding to them as though they are surprises. Every monsoon brings another warning. The country must finally decide to listen.
(The writer is a public health professional, journalist, and possesses expertise in health communication, having keen interest in national and international affairs, can be reached at uzma@metro-morning.com)
