By Dr. Zawwar Hussain
The intense heat being experienced in cities, streets, and homes today cannot be reduced to a matter of seasonal discomfort. To treat it as such would be a serious misreading of what is unfolding. What is being felt is increasingly understood by climate scientists as part of a broader global disturbance associated with a Super El Niño event, a phenomenon capable of pushing temperatures well beyond historical norms while simultaneously amplifying pressures on human health, economic systems, and ecological stability. El Niño events are not new, but their intensity and frequency are changing in ways that reflect a warming planet. In a Super El Niño phase, global temperatures can rise temporarily by around 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius.
On its own, that figure may appear modest. Yet when layered on top of existing global warming trends, deforestation, and unplanned urban expansion, the combined effect becomes far more severe. In vulnerable regions, including Pakistan, this can translate into temperature spikes of 3 to 5 degrees above seasonal averages, a shift that moves conditions from extreme to potentially life-threatening. Pakistan already occupies a difficult position in global climate vulnerability rankings. It is exposed to heatwaves, water stress, and rapid environmental degradation, while simultaneously grappling with infrastructural constraints that limit its capacity to respond. The energy system, in particular, has become a critical pressure point. During peak summer months, electricity demand routinely exceeds supply by thousands of megawatts.
The result is prolonged load shedding, often stretching between 8 and 12 hours in certain areas, precisely when cooling is most urgently needed. This is no longer simply an inconvenience. It is a public health issue. When temperatures rise above 45 degrees Celsius and electricity outages disable fans and air conditioning, indoor environments can become dangerously close to uninhabitable. The human body’s ability to regulate heat collapses under such conditions, especially among vulnerable groups. The memory of Karachi’s 2015 heatwave remains a stark reminder of what happens when infrastructure failure converges with extreme weather. More than a thousand lives were lost, many of them during power cuts that cut off access to cooling and clean water. That episode should not be viewed as an isolated tragedy but as a warning.
Climate projections suggest that such events are likely to become more frequent unless the underlying structural issues are addressed. Energy experts have long pointed out that Pakistan’s electricity deficit during summer is not a marginal shortfall but a systemic gap, one that reflects both supply limitations and inefficient consumption patterns. Without reform, the human cost of future heatwaves is likely to rise. Compounding this crisis is the steady erosion of natural buffers. Trees, which once played a crucial role in moderating urban temperatures, are being removed at a pace that far exceeds replanting efforts. A mature tree can absorb significant quantities of carbon dioxide annually and can reduce localized temperatures by several degrees through shade and evapotranspiration. Yet urban expansion frequently prioritizes concrete over canopy.
The result is an intensifying urban heat island effect, in which cities become significantly hotter than surrounding rural areas. This effect is particularly visible in major urban centers such as Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. Dense construction, asphalt surfaces, and limited green space trap heat during the day and release it slowly at night, preventing temperatures from falling to levels that allow the human body to recover. The consequence is not only discomfort but physiological stress, especially for those without access to cooling systems. Heat-related illness is already emerging as a growing public health challenge. Heatstroke, once considered relatively rare, is now a recurring medical emergency during summer months. Medical professionals warn that once core body temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius, organ failure can follow rapidly without immediate intervention.
Elderly people, children, and outdoor laborers remain the most exposed, often with the least protection. The line between survivable heat and fatal exposure is becoming increasingly thin. Urbanization patterns are central to this story. Pakistan’s urban population has expanded dramatically over the past decades and is projected to continue rising. Yet this growth has largely been unplanned, with insufficient attention to environmental design. Concrete structures, glass facades and asphalt roads dominate the landscape, all of which absorb and re-emit heat. Combined with vehicle emissions and industrial pollution, they create a persistent thermal burden that cities struggle to dissipate. The question that naturally follows is whether this trajectory can be altered. The answer is not simple, but it is not absent. It requires a shift in both policy and behavior, and a recognition that climate adaptation is no longer optional.
Yet structural change alone is insufficient without individual awareness. Behavioral adjustments, such as hydration, limiting exposure during peak heat hours, and checking on vulnerable individuals, can reduce immediate risks. These are not solutions in themselves, but they are forms of adaptation that save lives in the present. The broader message is unavoidable. The heat being experienced today is not an anomaly but a signal. It reflects a planet under strain, where natural systems and human systems are increasingly misaligned. The Super El Niño phenomenon may be temporary, but the conditions that amplify its impact are not. The choice, therefore, is not between action and inaction, but between preparation and exposure. Without coordinated effort at every level, from governance to individual behavior, the burden of a warming world will continue to fall most heavily on those least able to bear it.
(The writer is a PhD scholar with a strong research and analytical background and can be reached at editorial@metro-Morning.com)
